Ledger / Prediction #1003 · narrative · 1H
Will "money" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 31% → FADES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
116 of 2649 launches in the last hour referenced "money" (9 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.84×.
Made2026-10-10 19:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 20:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 19:00 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.47162284180083963,
"momentum": -0.1722741757437816,
"diversity": -0.8068965517241379
},
"rawProbability": 0.30841327240352534
},
"features": {
"term": "money",
"rank60": 4,
"share15": 0.03700516351118761,
"share60": 0.0439622641509434,
"total15": 580,
"total60": 2649,
"momentum": 0.8417483545463275,
"diversity": 0.07758620689655173,
"launches15": 21,
"launches60": 116,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 9
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 423,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9990855555555556,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990855555555556
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.30841327240352534
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-10 20:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.478
Log loss1.176
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.04862174578866769,
"shareRatio": 1.1124305839570718,
"totalAfter": 2612,
"shareBefore": 0.043691148775894535,
"totalBefore": 2655,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 127,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 116
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 31% that "money" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.37% → 4.86% (+11%). INCORRECT.
— diversity misled on "money" (1H). diversity contributed -0.81 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
5cfef904508d3463853cbe0dcdee22e25af60e6b6bb4d8e5f16b769db0068aaePrevious hash
20c0f48d1daa1f402098582fdb07027e176ace44d235683851d73817a01cbb7a