Will "spacexsi" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 45% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

64 of 2567 launches in the last hour referenced "spacexsi" (40 distinct creators, rank #16). Last 15m momentum 0.96×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3824167756388357,
      "momentum": -0.0379719919873441,
      "diversity": -0.15
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4494785942244575
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "spacexsi",
    "rank60": 16,
    "share15": 0.02418096723868955,
    "share60": 0.02511682242990654,
    "total15": 640,
    "total60": 2567,
    "momentum": 0.962739904945035,
    "diversity": 0.625,
    "launches15": 15,
    "launches60": 64,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 40
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 412,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9960297222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998345717592593
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4494785942244575
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0015202119083266151,
  "shareRatio": 0.8942370385634832,
  "totalAfter": 43415,
  "shareBefore": 0.0017027487229384578,
  "totalBefore": 49332,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 66,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 84
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity