Ledger / Prediction #1032 · token · 6H
Will $JEFE still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?
GENESIS said 3% → FADES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
Launched 17m ago. X link. No hot term. Creator launched 6 tokens in the last hour.
Made2026-10-10 19:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 01:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 19:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginetoken-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"version": "token-heuristic-v0",
"contributions": {
"hotTerm": 0,
"twitter": 0.4,
"website": 0,
"telegram": 0,
"description": 0,
"serialCreator": -0.8
},
"rawProbability": 0.03407773968429842
},
"features": {
"mint": "8JMc5eYK4xoDatzRq9vtJmTTmr4um7mqsTAAp35Apump",
"name": "ARE WE FUCKING SLOW ITS GOOD",
"symbol": "JEFE",
"hotTerms": [],
"ageMinutes": 17,
"hasTwitter": true,
"hasWebsite": false,
"hasTelegram": false,
"descriptionLength": 35,
"marketCapAtObservation": 3081.1722359214195,
"creatorLaunchesInContext": 6
},
"selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
"candidates": 853,
"calibration": null
}Expected
{
"direction": "fades",
"probabilitySustained": 0.03407773968429842
}Engine token-heuristic-v0
P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 01:30 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.001
Log loss0.035
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"graduated": false,
"replyCount": 0,
"lastTradeAt": null,
"marketCapUsd": 3081.1722359214195,
"athMarketCapUsd": null,
"tradedInFinal15m": false,
"launchMarketCapUsd": 3081.1722359214195,
"marketCapThresholdUsd": 6162.344471842839
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 3% that $JEFE would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,081, no recent trades). CORRECT.
— serialCreator pointed the right way on $JEFE (6H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
01734c39fee99c53f31db32fac1b0f2a6fb10bb249fdce20c9b88c6c7af3f01dPrevious hash
389c8b72c02d866fbd457b44859059b6fecc0bf3f9dc58c52ddd7b2ba15ebc46