Ledger / Prediction #1033 · narrative · 1H

Will "pepper" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 27% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

107 of 2598 launches in the last hour referenced "pepper" (7 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 0.73×.

Made2026-10-10 20:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 21:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 19:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4595086383041708,
      "momentum": -0.31041140432473757,
      "diversity": -0.8214953271028037
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.27440276951955445
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "pepper",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.030324400564174896,
    "share60": 0.041362062331666026,
    "total15": 708,
    "total60": 2598,
    "momentum": 0.733145275035261,
    "diversity": 0.06542056074766354,
    "launches15": 21,
    "launches60": 107,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 7
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 385,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9935372222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9935372222222222
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.27440276951955445
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 21:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.075

Log loss0.321

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0011156563778356265,
  "shareRatio": 0.03162617791994467,
  "totalAfter": 2689,
  "shareBefore": 0.04096477794793262,
  "totalBefore": 2612,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 3,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 107
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 27% that "pepper" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.10% → 0.11% (-97%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "pepper" (1H). diversity contributed -0.82 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash71c4e526630286a230083f8541f554172b7b77bb62cf27ab146dc8311daae009

Previous hash01734c39fee99c53f31db32fac1b0f2a6fb10bb249fdce20c9b88c6c7af3f01d