Will "cluck" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 45% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

57 of 2598 launches in the last hour referenced "cluck" (31 distinct creators, rank #12). Last 15m momentum 1.05×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3650420033100675,
      "momentum": 0.0506019412125929,
      "diversity": -0.24736842105263154
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4545738240871012
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cluck",
    "rank60": 12,
    "share15": 0.0232722143864598,
    "share60": 0.022123893805309734,
    "total15": 708,
    "total60": 2598,
    "momentum": 1.051904090267983,
    "diversity": 0.543859649122807,
    "launches15": 16,
    "launches60": 57,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 31
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 385,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9935372222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9989228703703704
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4545738240871012
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.009607802999287329,
  "totalAfter": 13527,
  "shareBefore": 0.00381428383532816,
  "totalBefore": 15206,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 58
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity