Ledger / Prediction #104 · narrative · 6H

Will "yellow" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 34% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

6 of 1394 launches in the last hour referenced "yellow" (3 distinct creators, rank #180). Last 15m momentum 0.77×.

Made2026-10-09 11:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 17:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 11:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.027348233519093188,
      "momentum": -0.2563726347992243,
      "diversity": -0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.33842584471605974
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "yellow",
    "rank60": 180,
    "share15": 0.003605769230769231,
    "share60": 0.004659498207885305,
    "total15": 415,
    "total60": 1394,
    "momentum": 0.773853550295858,
    "diversity": 0.5,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 6,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 160,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9999369444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999894907407407
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.33842584471605974
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 17:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.115

Log loss0.413

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0007859163784973279,
  "shareRatio": 0.47442916393800477,
  "totalAfter": 12724,
  "shareBefore": 0.0016750418760469012,
  "totalBefore": 7761,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 10,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 13
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 34% that "yellow" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.17% → 0.08% (-53%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "yellow" (6H). diversity contributed -0.30 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash3c32c85930280ee0d6d635908bb79e6c536c4f45035afe21bc8e982aaacd09bf

Previous hash324529645577e69734b6184d997ef05a35f8d6c3b714e163652ab0cff3e054f9