Ledger / Prediction #1041 · narrative · 24H

Will "hes" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 34% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

104 of 2598 launches in the last hour referenced "hes" (4 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 0.72×.

Made2026-10-10 20:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 20:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 19:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.45524294800609083,
      "momentum": -0.3297356771511405,
      "diversity": -0.8538461538461538
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.33980362722701457
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "hes",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.028913963328631876,
    "share60": 0.04020777222008465,
    "total15": 708,
    "total60": 2598,
    "momentum": 0.7191137865178396,
    "diversity": 0.038461538461538464,
    "launches15": 20,
    "launches60": 104,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 385,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9935372222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997307175925926
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.33980362722701457
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 20:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.115

Log loss0.415

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0012220992436819775,
  "shareRatio": 0.4068074609956359,
  "totalAfter": 43368,
  "shareBefore": 0.0030223123732251523,
  "totalBefore": 49300,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 53,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 149
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 34% that "hes" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.30% → 0.12% (-60%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "hes" (24H). diversity contributed -0.85 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashb01a859d83817cca122ebe113ceeb6a1d49937dc85f290dc57cbe825c9f227e1

Previous hash21b461f25c55e02e635979cea385a8de73ca6dfe63917ecc05601dd599eb3294