Ledger / Prediction #1049 · narrative · 1H

Will "money" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 37% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

114 of 2735 launches in the last hour referenced "money" (14 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 1.06×.

Made2026-10-10 20:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 21:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 20:30 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.46901408039405923,
      "momentum": 0.05433122622697907,
      "diversity": -0.7526315789473684
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.370683369059535
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "money",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.044186046511627906,
    "share60": 0.041849415204678365,
    "total15": 644,
    "total60": 2735,
    "momentum": 1.0558342642429166,
    "diversity": 0.12280701754385964,
    "launches15": 28,
    "launches60": 114,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 14
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 375,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.998525,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.998525
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.370683369059535
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 21:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.137

Log loss0.463

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.030603804797353185,
  "shareRatio": 0.7369965935615245,
  "totalAfter": 2418,
  "shareBefore": 0.0416210295728368,
  "totalBefore": 2739,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 74,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 114
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 37% that "money" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.16% → 3.06% (-26%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "money" (1H). diversity contributed -0.75 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashf2cb9655abe01240a94c827f127debe849ce86ed7c667dbf0e0ebcb4f660d174

Previous hashff041ad926b1b6db000a9e122a4174adb917f1c70db37d981d076ca939dfcfd9