GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #1051 · narrative · 1H

Will "quantum" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 63% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

87 of 2735 launches in the last hour referenced "quantum" (79 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 1.24×.

Made2026-10-10 20:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 21:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 20:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.42847053093307247,
      "momentum": 0.2120416207474804,
      "diversity": 0.1896551724137931
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6295221368103266
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "quantum",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.03953488372093023,
    "share60": 0.031980994152046784,
    "total15": 644,
    "total60": 2735,
    "momentum": 1.2361993355481729,
    "diversity": 0.9080459770114943,
    "launches15": 25,
    "launches60": 87,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 79
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 375,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.998525,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.998525
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6295221368103266
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 21:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.396
Log loss0.993
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.024400330851943756,
  "shareRatio": 0.7702356345597353,
  "totalAfter": 2418,
  "shareBefore": 0.03176341730558598,
  "totalBefore": 2739,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 59,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 87
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 63% that "quantum" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.18% → 2.44% (-23%). INCORRECT.

— volume misled on "quantum" (1H). volume contributed +0.43 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash21183e2a03368a67a918e4b0901ad529a3dfe95794d2f5818e8c365491325065
Previous hash5ebe515a37faac1e9ce8365df917c4849d2094690542be08f8b59e746c1b870f