Ledger / Prediction #1060 · narrative · 24H
Will "nigga" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 53% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
6 of 2735 launches in the last hour referenced "nigga" (6 distinct creators, rank #320). Last 15m momentum 1.63×.
Made2026-10-10 20:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 20:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 20:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.027348233519093188,
"momentum": 0.48949051691923223,
"diversity": 0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.5270783240644438
},
"features": {
"term": "nigga",
"rank60": 320,
"share15": 0.003875968992248062,
"share60": 0.0023757309941520467,
"total15": 644,
"total60": 2735,
"momentum": 1.631484794275492,
"diversity": 1,
"launches15": 2,
"launches60": 6,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 6
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 375,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.998525,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999385416666666
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5270783240644438
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 20:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.224
Log loss0.640
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.002291613620055091,
"shareRatio": 1.547580784084385,
"totalAfter": 43201,
"shareBefore": 0.0014781217729361977,
"totalBefore": 49387,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 99,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 73
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 53% that "nigga" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.15% → 0.23% (+55%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "nigga" (24H). momentum contributed +0.49 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
411c6dcb7e4f93546caa35c5afbe3bc7d85be433ff31fa2a21488a91ae9fe527Previous hash
a9a2117212700b9bc75e7a39049ff3a20e6abd90f22028b36e272f16bd5f9f9e