Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 46% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

91 of 2681 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (60 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 0.83×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.43521323911241244,
      "momentum": -0.1902723747651734,
      "diversity": -0.10879120879120881
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4591288118465159
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.028205128205128206,
    "share60": 0.03411633109619687,
    "total15": 584,
    "total60": 2681,
    "momentum": 0.826733921815889,
    "diversity": 0.6593406593406593,
    "launches15": 16,
    "launches60": 91,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 60
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 372,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.99547,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.99547
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4591288118465159
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.05175438596491228,
  "shareRatio": 1.5272996456831558,
  "totalAfter": 2280,
  "shareBefore": 0.03384157679434734,
  "totalBefore": 2689,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 118,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 91
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity