Will "shit" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 21% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

49 of 2681 launches in the last hour referenced "shit" (22 distinct creators, rank #16). Last 15m momentum 0.14×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.34235735785147897,
      "momentum": -1.973801344856713,
      "diversity": -0.36122448979591837
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.21478260505083877
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "shit",
    "rank60": 16,
    "share15": 0.002564102564102564,
    "share60": 0.018456375838926176,
    "total15": 584,
    "total60": 2681,
    "momentum": 0.1389277389277389,
    "diversity": 0.4489795918367347,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 49,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 22
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 372,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.99547,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.99981125
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.21478260505083877
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0011390315906924847,
  "shareRatio": 0.40629114740330835,
  "totalAfter": 43019,
  "shareBefore": 0.002821933938323487,
  "totalBefore": 49257,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 49,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 139
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity