Ledger / Prediction #108 · token · 6H

Will $kimchi still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 6% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 19m ago. No social links. No hot term.

Made2026-10-09 11:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 17:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 11:00 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0.2,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.0604014851376858
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "2TZ1cwTRKz4FUEgyjPt9DBjdq8ET4FvBf6TZyyiGpump",
    "name": "The Kimchi",
    "symbol": "kimchi",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 19,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 92,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 155810.33676574886,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 2
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 451,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.0604014851376858
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 17:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeSUSTAINED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.883

Log loss2.807

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": true,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-09T16:00:52.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 655.3601235447314,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 277794.87950111274,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 155810.33676574886,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 311620.6735314977
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 6% that $kimchi would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: SUSTAINED (market cap $655, graduated). INCORRECT.

— description was right but too weak on $kimchi (6H). description contributed +0.20 toward yes, the true outcome, but could not overcome the prior.

— The prior was wrong on $kimchi (6H). Every active signal pointed the right way; the base assumption outweighed them.

— Overconfident: 94% and wrong on $kimchi. Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

3 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash79b9468a3bf209159bae0374ace7d36a31e175983f8c78baa0f905d27a0f96cf

Previous hashbc8a0f8b46cbce7bee3bfdd4d414060a782d4a93739d9fc3e6574d24aa510315