Ledger / Prediction #1088 · narrative · 6H

Will "hands" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 46% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

6 of 2404 launches in the last hour referenced "hands" (5 distinct creators, rank #286). Last 15m momentum 1.05×.

Made2026-10-10 21:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 03:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 21:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.027348233519093188,
      "momentum": 0.04797968188813515,
      "diversity": 0.10000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.45579807772139364
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "hands",
    "rank60": 286,
    "share15": 0.002835538752362949,
    "share60": 0.002702702702702703,
    "total15": 528,
    "total60": 2404,
    "momentum": 1.0491493383742911,
    "diversity": 0.8333333333333334,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 6,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 360,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9927038888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9987839814814815
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.45579807772139364
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 03:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.208

Log loss0.608

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0013666693464104832,
  "shareRatio": 0.6278601053171163,
  "totalAfter": 12439,
  "shareBefore": 0.0022082223809833084,
  "totalBefore": 15397,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 17,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 34
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 46% that "hands" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.22% → 0.14% (-38%). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on "hands" (6H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash5eae7a36a15a65698e0382e1c65a5d49dc5fde0fb1d0af2fdd7b784b29c5bd94

Previous hashf598152658bf55d6fa36797dfba408a1e63303518edf5af6970329ec2b2cca9e