Will "quantum" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 54% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
129 of 1461 launches in the last hour referenced "quantum" (88 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 1.05×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.48755617378913574,
"momentum": 0.04484111046064329,
"diversity": -0.08139534883720931
},
"rawProbability": 0.5376789161305089
},
"features": {
"term": "quantum",
"rank60": 2,
"share15": 0.09263959390862944,
"share60": 0.08857729138166895,
"total15": 393,
"total60": 1461,
"momentum": 1.0458616702271524,
"diversity": 0.6821705426356589,
"launches15": 36,
"launches60": 129,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 88
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 144,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9974325,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9974325
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5376789161305089
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.08067226890756303,
"shareRatio": 0.9159053470363661,
"totalAfter": 1785,
"shareBefore": 0.08805460750853242,
"totalBefore": 1465,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 144,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 129
}Predicted 54% that "quantum" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 8.81% → 8.07% (-8%). PARTIAL.
— "quantum" stayed roughly flat over 1H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
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