GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #109 · narrative · 1H

Will "quantum" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 54% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

129 of 1461 launches in the last hour referenced "quantum" (88 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 1.05×.

Made2026-10-09 11:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-09 12:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 11:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.48755617378913574,
      "momentum": 0.04484111046064329,
      "diversity": -0.08139534883720931
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5376789161305089
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "quantum",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.09263959390862944,
    "share60": 0.08857729138166895,
    "total15": 393,
    "total60": 1461,
    "momentum": 1.0458616702271524,
    "diversity": 0.6821705426356589,
    "launches15": 36,
    "launches60": 129,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 88
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 144,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9974325,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9974325
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5376789161305089
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 12:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.289
Log loss0.772
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.08067226890756303,
  "shareRatio": 0.9159053470363661,
  "totalAfter": 1785,
  "shareBefore": 0.08805460750853242,
  "totalBefore": 1465,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 144,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 129
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 54% that "quantum" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 8.81% → 8.07% (-8%). PARTIAL.

— "quantum" stayed roughly flat over 1H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashc6a40fea2a25c059412c1d61271166db4adeb7e34aeca8da7e1a0c69b7b87e10
Previous hash79b9468a3bf209159bae0374ace7d36a31e175983f8c78baa0f905d27a0f96cf