Will "grok" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 44% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

33 of 2404 launches in the last hour referenced "grok" (29 distinct creators, rank #15). Last 15m momentum 0.75×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.28306044735485697,
      "momentum": -0.2924805959110333,
      "diversity": 0.15454545454545454
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.44338450244899813
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "grok",
    "rank60": 15,
    "share15": 0.010396975425330813,
    "share60": 0.01392931392931393,
    "total15": 528,
    "total60": 2404,
    "momentum": 0.7464097282961375,
    "diversity": 0.8787878787878788,
    "launches15": 5,
    "launches60": 33,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 29
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 360,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9927038888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996959953703703
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.44338450244899813
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.005470204841713222,
  "shareRatio": 1.9870512438510477,
  "totalAfter": 42960,
  "shareBefore": 0.002748595162472514,
  "totalBefore": 49116,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 235,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 135
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity