GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #1097 · narrative · 1H

Will "uxento" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 50% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

173 of 2275 launches in the last hour referenced "uxento" (20 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 1.71×.

Made2026-10-10 22:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 23:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 21:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.5315780523095518,
      "momentum": 0.5392458431372882,
      "diversity": -0.7612716763005781
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5023880366285813
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "uxento",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.13071297989031078,
    "share60": 0.07623022847100176,
    "total15": 546,
    "total60": 2275,
    "momentum": 1.7147132117022899,
    "diversity": 0.11560693641618497,
    "launches15": 71,
    "launches60": 173,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 20
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 364,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9982630555555555,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9982630555555555
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5023880366285813
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 23:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.252
Log loss0.698
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.03937007874015748,
  "shareRatio": 0.5201060576034612,
  "totalAfter": 2413,
  "shareBefore": 0.07587719298245614,
  "totalBefore": 2280,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 95,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 173
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 50% that "uxento" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 7.59% → 3.94% (-48%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "uxento" (1H). momentum contributed +0.54 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash141fbe2795b859def620a645b3fb72f53c458438bbb47b59b2cae8aa0bf51fa4
Previous hash9cca34845b80a71e1f41f52a89f413d9b7397d298cfaedca33965ec417db4f0e