Ledger / Prediction #1098 · narrative · 1H

Will "money" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 36% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

74 of 2275 launches in the last hour referenced "money" (12 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 1.03×.

Made2026-10-10 22:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 23:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 21:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.40419407711551036,
      "momentum": 0.03269759952300583,
      "diversity": -0.7054054054054054
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.36157984486288497
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "money",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.033820840950639856,
    "share60": 0.03273286467486819,
    "total15": 546,
    "total60": 2275,
    "momentum": 1.0332380403175345,
    "diversity": 0.16216216216216217,
    "launches15": 18,
    "launches60": 74,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 12
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 364,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9982630555555555,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9982630555555555
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.36157984486288497
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 23:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationPARTIAL

Brier0.131

Log loss0.449

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.029838375466224618,
  "shareRatio": 0.9195381527220966,
  "totalAfter": 2413,
  "shareBefore": 0.03245614035087719,
  "totalBefore": 2280,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 72,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 74
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 36% that "money" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.25% → 2.98% (-8%). PARTIAL.

— "money" stayed roughly flat over 1H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash34f9a72e31d3b5df04588c24893f9f8ae6633b525bbcda999940a64e2c250f9b

Previous hash141fbe2795b859def620a645b3fb72f53c458438bbb47b59b2cae8aa0bf51fa4