Ledger / Prediction #1099 · narrative · 1H

Will "quantum" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 67% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

59 of 2275 launches in the last hour referenced "quantum" (57 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 1.43×.

Made2026-10-10 22:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 23:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 21:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3702149297207429,
      "momentum": 0.3601745664170187,
      "diversity": 0.25932203389830505
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6659027520999756
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "quantum",
    "rank60": 8,
    "share15": 0.037477148080438755,
    "share60": 0.026142355008787345,
    "total15": 546,
    "total60": 2275,
    "momentum": 1.433579647581153,
    "diversity": 0.9661016949152542,
    "launches15": 20,
    "launches60": 59,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 57
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 364,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9982630555555555,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9982630555555555
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6659027520999756
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 23:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.112

Log loss0.407

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.029423953584749276,
  "shareRatio": 1.135473742106619,
  "totalAfter": 2413,
  "shareBefore": 0.02587719298245614,
  "totalBefore": 2280,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 71,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 59
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 67% that "quantum" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.59% → 2.94% (+14%). CORRECT.

— volume pointed the right way on "quantum" (1H). volume contributed +0.37 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashd6f9f8372f6ebefdd581274172cd8cdd3429a979d9ef03fd2006a51ba825e449

Previous hash34f9a72e31d3b5df04588c24893f9f8ae6633b525bbcda999940a64e2c250f9b