Ledger / Prediction #11 · narrative · 1H

Will "chain" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 55% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

23 of 1349 launches in the last hour referenced "chain" (22 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 1.03×.

Made2026-10-09 06:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 07:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 05:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.22890844552425738,
      "momentum": 0.028759794933590137,
      "diversity": 0.24782608695652175
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5511935587295205
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "chain",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.017915309446254073,
    "share60": 0.017407407407407406,
    "total15": 306,
    "total60": 1349,
    "momentum": 1.0291773511677873,
    "diversity": 0.9565217391304348,
    "launches15": 5,
    "launches60": 23,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 22
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 170,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9968630555555555,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9968630555555555
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5511935587295205
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 07:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.304

Log loss0.801

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.010350318471337579,
  "shareRatio": 0.62016960341238,
  "totalAfter": 1256,
  "shareBefore": 0.01696165191740413,
  "totalBefore": 1356,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 13,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 23
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 55% that "chain" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 1.70% → 1.04% (-39%). INCORRECT.

— diversity misled on "chain" (1H). diversity contributed +0.25 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash3a8e63604a3a7a3d79961131aa28d5f2c7e4032673b7dfdae777e279572682d4

Previous hashed5c2369bce354b5540a5063bf725fcec8cbb6df82a05ba8d543200795af1cd3