GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #1100 · narrative · 1H

Will "agents" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 63% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

19 of 2275 launches in the last hour referenced "agents" (19 distinct creators, rank #43). Last 15m momentum 1.39×.

Made2026-10-10 22:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 23:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 21:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.200250160009851,
      "momentum": 0.32711370415613067,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6288680655554163
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "agents",
    "rank60": 43,
    "share15": 0.011882998171846435,
    "share60": 0.008567662565905097,
    "total15": 546,
    "total60": 2275,
    "momentum": 1.3869591712370506,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 6,
    "launches60": 19,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 19
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 364,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9982630555555555,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9982630555555555
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6288680655554163
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 23:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.138
Log loss0.464
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.00870285951098218,
  "shareRatio": 1.04181802731927,
  "totalAfter": 2413,
  "shareBefore": 0.008333333333333333,
  "totalBefore": 2280,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 21,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 19
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 63% that "agents" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.83% → 0.87% (+4%). PARTIAL.

— "agents" stayed roughly flat over 1H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash2152e2adf5e620e2ea52d7f441a682ba8179c253da6cc4b8efc749868e92986d
Previous hashd6f9f8372f6ebefdd581274172cd8cdd3429a979d9ef03fd2006a51ba825e449