Ledger / Prediction #1113 · narrative · 1H

Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 52% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

120 of 2276 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (68 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 1.14×.

Made2026-10-10 22:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 23:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 22:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.47670807455219183,
      "momentum": 0.12875872732194193,
      "diversity": -0.22
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5213537037412181
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.06019261637239166,
    "share60": 0.052920509442248576,
    "total15": 622,
    "total60": 2276,
    "momentum": 1.137415663733907,
    "diversity": 0.5666666666666667,
    "launches15": 37,
    "launches60": 120,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 68
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 380,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9954852777777777,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9954852777777777
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5213537037412181
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 23:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.229

Log loss0.651

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.05848195769390294,
  "shareRatio": 1.1081168232909526,
  "totalAfter": 2411,
  "shareBefore": 0.05274629468177855,
  "totalBefore": 2294,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 141,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 121
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 52% that "cat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 5.27% → 5.85% (+11%). CORRECT.

— volume pointed the right way on "cat" (1H). volume contributed +0.48 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash21125321a1a09bc75a3a53027c51f708c98effbf324ebfbd600de562fc93ccaf

Previous hashcef63e48c9c13b4f8a2da354a2520676b1f4edc9ebf73aadf2a0c5fb25a1d126