Ledger / Prediction #1118 · narrative · 6H
Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 45% → FADES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
57 of 2276 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (47 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 0.73×.
Made2026-10-10 22:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 04:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 22:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3650420033100675,
"momentum": -0.31337036515781375,
"diversity": 0.08947368421052633
},
"rawProbability": 0.4498694276736228
},
"features": {
"term": "inu",
"rank60": 9,
"share15": 0.018459069020866775,
"share60": 0.025252525252525252,
"total15": 622,
"total60": 2276,
"momentum": 0.7309791332263244,
"diversity": 0.8245614035087719,
"launches15": 11,
"launches60": 57,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 47
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 380,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9954852777777777,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9992475462962963
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.4498694276736228
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 04:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.202
Log loss0.598
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.02314895092769204,
"shareRatio": 0.9092243979843678,
"totalAfter": 11534,
"shareBefore": 0.025474816879496986,
"totalBefore": 15427,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 267,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 393
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 45% that "inu" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 2.55% → 2.31% (-9%). PARTIAL.
— "inu" stayed roughly flat over 6H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
a0d3abb7bdbc3be1d5f683ffb146f9e99089692e5b5c248c5abe1f7a238a14c9Previous hash
ad9b701d876fda375f91349eaad9ea7e084290650479ba2bdd1f2d17ae648e61