Ledger / Prediction #1129 · narrative · 1H

Will "uxento" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 45% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

94 of 2395 launches in the last hour referenced "uxento" (23 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 1.31×.

Made2026-10-10 23:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 00:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 22:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4400785304753855,
      "momentum": 0.2694847133998734,
      "diversity": -0.6063829787234043
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4509532951289607
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "uxento",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.051639344262295085,
    "share60": 0.039440734557595995,
    "total15": 609,
    "total60": 2395,
    "momentum": 1.3092896174863389,
    "diversity": 0.24468085106382978,
    "launches15": 31,
    "launches60": 94,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 23
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 426,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9924222222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9924222222222222
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4509532951289607
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 00:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.203

Log loss0.600

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.008155867693701857,
  "shareRatio": 0.21179053797708475,
  "totalAfter": 2207,
  "shareBefore": 0.03937007874015748,
  "totalBefore": 2413,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 18,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 95
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 45% that "uxento" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.94% → 0.82% (-79%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "uxento" (1H). diversity contributed -0.61 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashf1f5aaa62d81afdc997ff5a8a943a1d2374d3344c485acd13ed9eafa7d304f10

Previous hash5dd34b0e85bd9a697b95f408f40c9d33872817e8242c118ec01b2c2bfc6f694f