Ledger / Prediction #113 · narrative · 6H

Will "pqc" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 31% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

52 of 1461 launches in the last hour referenced "pqc" (26 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 0.46×.

Made2026-10-09 11:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 17:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 11:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.351270870922099,
      "momentum": -0.7778012616841967,
      "diversity": -0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3081950321827144
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "pqc",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.01649746192893401,
    "share60": 0.035909712722298225,
    "total15": 393,
    "total60": 1461,
    "momentum": 0.4594150350495528,
    "diversity": 0.5,
    "launches15": 6,
    "launches60": 52,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 26
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 144,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9974325,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9995720833333334
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3081950321827144
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 17:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.095

Log loss0.368

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.006103993971363979,
  "shareRatio": 0.6214112265162215,
  "totalAfter": 13270,
  "shareBefore": 0.009820175997959445,
  "totalBefore": 7841,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 81,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 77
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 31% that "pqc" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.98% → 0.61% (-38%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "pqc" (6H). momentum contributed -0.78 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash4b146a30b7baf051f77a681a64aac70b05efb72e3beadb248600ca402de0d5cb

Previous hash63d3bebfb0cda08f14a69b86be35e0827d387165402152a090facc64a6fe24ce