Will "intelligence" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 55% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
73 of 2395 launches in the last hour referenced "intelligence" (41 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 1.36×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.40215322930714364,
"momentum": 0.3094900480135725,
"diversity": -0.22602739726027393
},
"rawProbability": 0.5462711967925966
},
"features": {
"term": "intelligence",
"rank60": 3,
"share15": 0.04180327868852459,
"share60": 0.030676126878130216,
"total15": 609,
"total60": 2395,
"momentum": 1.3627300100368016,
"diversity": 0.5616438356164384,
"launches15": 25,
"launches60": 73,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 41
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 426,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9924222222222222,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9924222222222222
}{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5462711967925966
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.043044857272315364,
"shareRatio": 1.4014748078980643,
"totalAfter": 2207,
"shareBefore": 0.0306672192291753,
"totalBefore": 2413,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 95,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 74
}Predicted 55% that "intelligence" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.07% → 4.30% (+40%). CORRECT.
— volume pointed the right way on "intelligence" (1H). volume contributed +0.40 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
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