GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #1131 · narrative · 1H

Will "money" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 30% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

72 of 2395 launches in the last hour referenced "money" (9 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.84×.

Made2026-10-10 23:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 00:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 22:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.40008423098729323,
      "momentum": -0.17464953586744514,
      "diversity": -0.75
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3047954326350281
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "money",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.02540983606557377,
    "share60": 0.030258764607679466,
    "total15": 609,
    "total60": 2395,
    "momentum": 0.8397512719050311,
    "diversity": 0.125,
    "launches15": 15,
    "launches60": 72,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 9
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 426,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9924222222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9924222222222222
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3047954326350281
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 00:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.483
Log loss1.188
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.037607612143180785,
  "shareRatio": 1.2591766616691655,
  "totalAfter": 2207,
  "shareBefore": 0.029838375466224618,
  "totalBefore": 2413,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 83,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 72
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 30% that "money" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 2.98% → 3.76% (+26%). INCORRECT.

— diversity misled on "money" (1H). diversity contributed -0.75 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash69a7c1e100c994459565c03f2d978508d4e85152f1cc049822e982114dc5ee7a
Previous hashe2dafb8be8d90e77d87d1b187d9096eec102c7ce469207d36530df7ac92ec392