Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 43% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

142 of 2395 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (79 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 0.79×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.5019583717750741,
      "momentum": -0.24134091036611727,
      "diversity": -0.23239436619718304
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4303939980800527
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.04672131147540984,
    "share60": 0.05947412353923205,
    "total15": 609,
    "total60": 2395,
    "momentum": 0.7855737704918033,
    "diversity": 0.5563380281690141,
    "launches15": 28,
    "launches60": 142,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 79
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 426,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9924222222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9987370370370371
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4303939980800527
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.05887192613584423,
  "shareRatio": 1.462304671801864,
  "totalAfter": 10939,
  "shareBefore": 0.040257648953301126,
  "totalBefore": 15525,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 644,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 625
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity