Will "ollie" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 32% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

57 of 2395 launches in the last hour referenced "ollie" (30 distinct creators, rank #10). Last 15m momentum 0.38×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3650420033100675,
      "momentum": -0.9789398534968965,
      "diversity": -0.26842105263157895
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3227506557103379
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "ollie",
    "rank60": 10,
    "share15": 0.009016393442622951,
    "share60": 0.023998330550918198,
    "total15": 609,
    "total60": 2395,
    "momentum": 0.37570919458303637,
    "diversity": 0.5263157894736842,
    "launches15": 5,
    "launches60": 57,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 30
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 426,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9924222222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996842592592593
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3227506557103379
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00453939209584201,
  "shareRatio": 3.7358615775384987,
  "totalAfter": 42737,
  "shareBefore": 0.001207976741329184,
  "totalBefore": 48842,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 194,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 59
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity