Ledger / Prediction #1139 · narrative · 24H

Will "history" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 46% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

36 of 2395 launches in the last hour referenced "history" (3 distinct creators, rank #16). Last 15m momentum 2.21×.

Made2026-10-10 23:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 23:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 22:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2961121539033014,
      "momentum": 0.7912096276238996,
      "diversity": -0.7999999999999999
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.46099463749869485
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "history",
    "rank60": 16,
    "share15": 0.03360655737704918,
    "share60": 0.01523372287145242,
    "total15": 609,
    "total60": 2395,
    "momentum": 2.20606332809342,
    "diversity": 0.08333333333333333,
    "launches15": 20,
    "launches60": 36,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 426,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9924222222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996842592592593
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.46099463749869485
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 23:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.213

Log loss0.618

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0007253667782015584,
  "shareRatio": 0.2758596484433622,
  "totalAfter": 42737,
  "shareBefore": 0.00266164366733549,
  "totalBefore": 48842,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 31,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 130
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 46% that "history" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.27% → 0.07% (-73%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "history" (24H). diversity contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashdccc09550d97f99685997b238e04be2089d24d229f18f02afd2f21be12afbed5

Previous hash9d5fea3637bf730f17729dd19d4ec76a300e1fe6ab8126fd2bad2ba8aefab546