Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 42% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

141 of 2403 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (78 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 0.75×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.5008982966916101,
      "momentum": -0.28517202152001975,
      "diversity": -0.2361702127659574
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4205675606691905
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.044256120527306965,
    "share60": 0.05886023294509152,
    "total15": 530,
    "total60": 2403,
    "momentum": 0.7518849028102187,
    "diversity": 0.5531914893617021,
    "launches15": 23,
    "launches60": 141,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 78
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 428,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9974291666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9974291666666667
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4205675606691905
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.06853426713356678,
  "shareRatio": 1.1719081272084808,
  "totalAfter": 1999,
  "shareBefore": 0.05848195769390294,
  "totalBefore": 2411,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 137,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 141
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity