GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #1147 · narrative · 1H

Will "quantum" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 60% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

73 of 2403 launches in the last hour referenced "quantum" (65 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 1.14×.

Made2026-10-10 23:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 00:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 23:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.40215322930714364,
      "momentum": 0.13061260027864757,
      "diversity": 0.1684931506849315
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5989901060335803
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "quantum",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.03483992467043315,
    "share60": 0.030574043261231282,
    "total15": 530,
    "total60": 2403,
    "momentum": 1.1395262436424665,
    "diversity": 0.8904109589041096,
    "launches15": 18,
    "launches60": 73,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 65
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 428,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9974291666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9974291666666667
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5989901060335803
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 00:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.359
Log loss0.914
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.01200600300150075,
  "shareRatio": 0.402,
  "totalAfter": 1999,
  "shareBefore": 0.03027789299046039,
  "totalBefore": 2411,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 24,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 73
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 60% that "quantum" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.03% → 1.20% (-60%). INCORRECT.

— volume misled on "quantum" (1H). volume contributed +0.40 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashfcb27c7b39fd3d6d0abaa86e9ed82860c375b7a61bbd1b00c465c0505c4760a2
Previous hashb26febc6156f70aa042fed3fce05e6991d67b25032cca904767513b96967ddbb