Ledger / Prediction #1147 · narrative · 1H
Will "quantum" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 60% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
73 of 2403 launches in the last hour referenced "quantum" (65 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 1.14×.
Made2026-10-10 23:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 00:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 23:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.40215322930714364,
"momentum": 0.13061260027864757,
"diversity": 0.1684931506849315
},
"rawProbability": 0.5989901060335803
},
"features": {
"term": "quantum",
"rank60": 5,
"share15": 0.03483992467043315,
"share60": 0.030574043261231282,
"total15": 530,
"total60": 2403,
"momentum": 1.1395262436424665,
"diversity": 0.8904109589041096,
"launches15": 18,
"launches60": 73,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 65
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 428,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9974291666666667,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9974291666666667
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5989901060335803
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 00:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.359
Log loss0.914
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.01200600300150075,
"shareRatio": 0.402,
"totalAfter": 1999,
"shareBefore": 0.03027789299046039,
"totalBefore": 2411,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 24,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 73
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 60% that "quantum" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.03% → 1.20% (-60%). INCORRECT.
— volume misled on "quantum" (1H). volume contributed +0.40 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
fcb27c7b39fd3d6d0abaa86e9ed82860c375b7a61bbd1b00c465c0505c4760a2Previous hash
b26febc6156f70aa042fed3fce05e6991d67b25032cca904767513b96967ddbb