Ledger / Prediction #1149 · narrative · 6H

Will "sent" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 19% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

46 of 2403 launches in the last hour referenced "sent" (34 distinct creators, rank #11). Last 15m momentum 0.15×.

Made2026-10-10 23:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 05:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 23:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3328805226082492,
      "momentum": -1.923859930071987,
      "diversity": -0.013043478260869623
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.19422050004810415
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "sent",
    "rank60": 11,
    "share15": 0.002824858757062147,
    "share60": 0.019342762063227954,
    "total15": 530,
    "total60": 2403,
    "momentum": 0.14604216025757852,
    "diversity": 0.7391304347826086,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 46,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 34
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 428,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9974291666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9995715277777778
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.19422050004810415
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 05:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.038

Log loss0.216

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0024022292687614108,
  "shareRatio": 0.43593883825628643,
  "totalAfter": 10407,
  "shareBefore": 0.005588386433710174,
  "totalBefore": 15568,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 25,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 87
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 19% that "sent" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.56% → 0.24% (-57%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "sent" (6H). momentum contributed -1.92 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash58bfc0a9b58dd29abfd6b27f5c0886e5082698325275b9547299fa70ac0b0627

Previous hashc8879e935e2e81d9617004696d52f86eb3bdccf29339aee70ba40a63c7add672