Will "alpha" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 7% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

26 of 1461 launches in the last hour referenced "alpha" (3 distinct creators, rank #11). Last 15m momentum 0.07×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.24729879383810724,
      "momentum": -2.659082182540332,
      "diversity": -0.7615384615384615
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.07437665404662604
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "alpha",
    "rank60": 11,
    "share15": 0.0012690355329949238,
    "share60": 0.018125854993160054,
    "total15": 393,
    "total60": 1461,
    "momentum": 0.07001245091466334,
    "diversity": 0.11538461538461539,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 26,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 144,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9974325,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9995720833333334
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.07437665404662604
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0023360964581763378,
  "shareRatio": 0.5727305924427468,
  "totalAfter": 13270,
  "shareBefore": 0.004081112103048081,
  "totalBefore": 7841,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 31,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 32
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity