Ledger / Prediction #1151 · narrative · 6H

Will "history" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 14% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

37 of 2403 launches in the last hour referenced "history" (4 distinct creators, rank #15). Last 15m momentum 0.18×.

Made2026-10-10 23:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 05:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 23:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3002220000315186,
      "momentum": -1.7087485504550415,
      "diversity": -0.7702702702702703
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.13881613113021285
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "history",
    "rank60": 15,
    "share15": 0.002824858757062147,
    "share60": 0.01559900166389351,
    "total15": 530,
    "total60": 2403,
    "momentum": 0.18109227871939737,
    "diversity": 0.10810810810810811,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 37,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 428,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9974291666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9995715277777778
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.13881613113021285
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 05:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.019

Log loss0.149

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0013452483905063899,
  "shareRatio": 0.2597616066867035,
  "totalAfter": 10407,
  "shareBefore": 0.005331449126413155,
  "totalBefore": 15568,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 14,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 83
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 14% that "history" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.53% → 0.13% (-75%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "history" (6H). momentum contributed -1.71 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash550c37b12ed3fcae8f2052d8aa0b512a724ec5ef4d0bef5d6c29089843c02fd7

Previous hashca90ba1a3a020b0b72d07cf52149fe7a40cf52d70fc412f9d0d6fa3b7b0c5b32