Ledger / Prediction #1154 · narrative · 24H
Will "tesselai" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 62% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
44 of 2403 launches in the last hour referenced "tesselai" (22 distinct creators, rank #13). Last 15m momentum 4.53×.
Made2026-10-10 23:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 23:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 23:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.32621275822262413,
"momentum": 1.5101272744131593,
"diversity": -0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.6149505324414688
},
"features": {
"term": "tesselai",
"rank60": 13,
"share15": 0.08380414312617702,
"share60": 0.0185108153078203,
"total15": 530,
"total60": 2403,
"momentum": 4.527306967984934,
"diversity": 0.5,
"launches15": 44,
"launches60": 44,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 22
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 428,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9974291666666667,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998928819444445
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6149505324414688
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 23:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.378
Log loss0.955
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.001032451838468217,
"shareRatio": 0.7567296377986698,
"totalAfter": 42617,
"shareBefore": 0.0013696389876936914,
"totalBefore": 48918,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 44,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 67
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 62% that "tesselai" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.14% → 0.10% (-25%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "tesselai" (24H). momentum contributed +1.51 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
e35db57cd6e1200fab45bb564327d9af538d44462d1be58798f46fd700fb6237Previous hash
1775de41b6d693917b65127efe3e85e3a876a0270c7d1c31ed5662354e713a72