Will "robinhood" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 43% → FADES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
34 of 2403 launches in the last hour referenced "robinhood" (23 distinct creators, rank #19). Last 15m momentum 0.85×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.28753839182730917,
"momentum": -0.15902987272256328,
"diversity": -0.08823529411764701
},
"rawProbability": 0.43048726875177484
},
"features": {
"term": "robinhood",
"rank60": 19,
"share15": 0.01224105461393597,
"share60": 0.01435108153078203,
"total15": 530,
"total60": 2403,
"momentum": 0.852970878026147,
"diversity": 0.6764705882352942,
"launches15": 6,
"launches60": 34,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 23
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 428,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9974291666666667,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998928819444445
}{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.43048726875177484
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.008024966562639322,
"shareRatio": 1.0785680438869927,
"totalAfter": 42617,
"shareBefore": 0.007441023754037369,
"totalBefore": 48918,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 342,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 364
}Predicted 43% that "robinhood" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.74% → 0.80% (+8%). PARTIAL.
— "robinhood" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
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