Will "main" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 51% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

11 of 2403 launches in the last hour referenced "main" (8 distinct creators, rank #112). Last 15m momentum 1.77×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.11826860405464054,
      "momentum": 0.5718576358202291,
      "diversity": -0.027272727272727247
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5078560425067633
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "main",
    "rank60": 112,
    "share15": 0.00847457627118644,
    "share60": 0.00478369384359401,
    "total15": 530,
    "total60": 2403,
    "momentum": 1.7715549005158437,
    "diversity": 0.7272727272727273,
    "launches15": 4,
    "launches60": 11,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 8
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 428,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9974291666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998928819444445
}

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5078560425067633
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0035666518056174765,
  "shareRatio": 0.8559749137760013,
  "totalAfter": 42617,
  "shareBefore": 0.004170244081933031,
  "totalBefore": 48918,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 152,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 204
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity