Ledger / Prediction #1159 · token · 1H

Will $Doglie still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 10% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 17m ago. X link. Rides hot term "intelligence".

Made2026-10-10 23:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 00:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 23:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.09583022773245922
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "4erV8HqWxp7PUKHBfyB4CWVB1n9JEJpx6Z6S4UgYpump",
    "name": "Super Intelligence Dog ",
    "symbol": "Doglie",
    "hotTerms": [
      "intelligence",
      "dog",
      "ollie"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 17,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 15,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3287.1538498074415,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 809,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.09583022773245922
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 00:30 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.009

Log loss0.101

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-10T23:16:20.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3080.2423135356385,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3490.1262853947424,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3287.1538498074415,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6574.307699614883
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 10% that $Doglie would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,080, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $Doglie (1H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash048049fb09e5aa47bf75379e6f6da9f0fa8a9303d5d6f68476d6649053984f74

Previous hash17af99ca9bf06a3099c1c3b073c85257baf9e9d8f314aadf20165c763b6dd71b