Ledger / Prediction #116 · narrative · 6H
Will "free" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 33% → FADES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
14 of 1461 launches in the last hour referenced "free" (7 distinct creators, rank #36). Last 15m momentum 0.64×.
Made2026-10-09 11:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-09 17:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 11:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.1544429125771737,
"momentum": -0.4466481865405837,
"diversity": -0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.328595628867514
},
"features": {
"term": "free",
"rank60": 36,
"share15": 0.006345177664974619,
"share60": 0.009917920656634747,
"total15": 393,
"total60": 1461,
"momentum": 0.639768948013303,
"diversity": 0.5,
"launches15": 2,
"launches60": 14,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 7
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 144,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9974325,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9995720833333334
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.328595628867514
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-09 17:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.451
Log loss1.113
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.008138658628485305,
"shareRatio": 2.249614315345292,
"totalAfter": 13270,
"shareBefore": 0.0035709730901670707,
"totalBefore": 7841,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 108,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 28
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 33% that "free" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.36% → 0.81% (+128%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "free" (6H). momentum contributed -0.45 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
a997bae480d820132af4e9e35bef52c7ceb1898b971224b2c3bf31c10a498de0Previous hash
8ebd97aa803b09e9f5635449cbb8e32db186fcb7a1a907fcdcb53a6bb7831491