Ledger / Prediction #1162 · narrative · 1H
Will "money" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 41% → FADES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
82 of 2183 launches in the last hour referenced "money" (4 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 1.40×.
Made2026-10-11 00:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 01:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 23:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.4195922002245229,
"momentum": 0.3386516780941452,
"diversity": -0.8414634146341463
},
"rawProbability": 0.4053506193376654
},
"features": {
"term": "money",
"rank60": 3,
"share15": 0.053,
"share60": 0.03777472527472527,
"total15": 499,
"total60": 2183,
"momentum": 1.4030545454545456,
"diversity": 0.04878048780487805,
"launches15": 26,
"launches60": 82,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 4
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 334,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9940997222222222,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9940997222222222
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.4053506193376654
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 01:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.164
Log loss0.520
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.03489483747609943,
"shareRatio": 0.9286043298019345,
"totalAfter": 2092,
"shareBefore": 0.037607612143180785,
"totalBefore": 2207,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 73,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 83
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 41% that "money" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.76% → 3.49% (-7%). PARTIAL.
— "money" stayed roughly flat over 1H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
1feffa3902c25727e08795ac5bbbbd461fbcd0ee61a24e0e75a45b03ad4b3116Previous hash
7f7c423e3941a26f36b71c4c2413b5ebabd712ceca44cd2b31acca8a8458e901