Ledger / Prediction #1165 · narrative · 6H

Will "quantum" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 30% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

52 of 2183 launches in the last hour referenced "quantum" (43 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 0.29×.

Made2026-10-11 00:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 06:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 23:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.351270870922099,
      "momentum": -1.233744962659606,
      "diversity": 0.09230769230769224
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.2987795137175468
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "quantum",
    "rank60": 9,
    "share15": 0.007,
    "share60": 0.02403846153846154,
    "total15": 499,
    "total60": 2183,
    "momentum": 0.2912,
    "diversity": 0.8269230769230769,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 52,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 43
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 334,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9940997222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990166203703704
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.2987795137175468
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 06:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.089

Log loss0.355

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.014301213137390275,
  "shareRatio": 0.4917756939183609,
  "totalAfter": 10139,
  "shareBefore": 0.02914647280560043,
  "totalBefore": 14856,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 145,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 433
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 30% that "quantum" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 2.91% → 1.43% (-51%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "quantum" (6H). momentum contributed -1.23 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash4ef78bb1cbc8979ea7155473239f7bdbed4a7b770c7ebb2791b421f5bef5ea53

Previous hash55fed96cbc95b680d7d56b4fbe2f3ab80e077bcc4f11044f02a6bf54e745f81e