Ledger / Prediction #1167 · narrative · 6H

Will "fund" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 59% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

29 of 2183 launches in the last hour referenced "fund" (27 distinct creators, rank #15). Last 15m momentum 1.55×.

Made2026-10-11 00:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 06:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 23:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.263678687632856,
      "momentum": 0.44129023226030745,
      "diversity": 0.2172413793103448
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.585537373967164
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "fund",
    "rank60": 15,
    "share15": 0.021,
    "share60": 0.013507326007326008,
    "total15": 499,
    "total60": 2183,
    "momentum": 1.5547118644067797,
    "diversity": 0.9310344827586207,
    "launches15": 10,
    "launches60": 29,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 27
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 334,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9940997222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990166203703704
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.585537373967164
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 06:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.172

Log loss0.535

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00739717920899497,
  "shareRatio": 1.3573208213840586,
  "totalAfter": 10139,
  "shareBefore": 0.005452342487883684,
  "totalBefore": 14856,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 75,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 81
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 59% that "fund" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.55% → 0.74% (+36%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "fund" (6H). momentum contributed +0.44 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash81b22e9fe29ced3942431f15fa11e36afc8434008bd1df00efd27959ca8c898e

Previous hash1605127ccfd5887cf9d67bd19a52d69b999b71d09becb1cc4edd295b12bfcd5b