Ledger / Prediction #1170 · narrative · 24H
Will "veil" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 18% → FADES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
29 of 2183 launches in the last hour referenced "veil" (18 distinct creators, rank #18). Last 15m momentum 0.07×.
Made2026-10-11 00:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 00:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 23:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.263678687632856,
"momentum": -2.6032322054631156,
"diversity": -0.15517241379310343
},
"rawProbability": 0.17546746421637832
},
"features": {
"term": "veil",
"rank60": 18,
"share15": 0.001,
"share60": 0.013507326007326008,
"total15": 499,
"total60": 2183,
"momentum": 0.07403389830508475,
"diversity": 0.6206896551724138,
"launches15": 0,
"launches60": 29,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 18
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 334,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9940997222222222,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997541550925926
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.17546746421637832
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-12 00:04 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.031
Log loss0.193
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0006832049379225858,
"shareRatio": 0.9048853499183315,
"totalAfter": 42447,
"shareBefore": 0.0007577929791504526,
"totalBefore": 48826,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 29,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 37
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 18% that "veil" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.08% → 0.07% (-10%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "veil" (24H). momentum contributed -2.60 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
92dd90a303fb206ba142728adca2fa70f92286227404fdf519411da280433093Previous hash
1aafe25edd037bb0116679d8057fb0011e33fbce6557771241196c3fdac17d37