Ledger / Prediction #1172 · narrative · 24H

Will "inside" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 32% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 2183 launches in the last hour referenced "inside" (4 distinct creators, rank #325). Last 15m momentum 0.40×.

Made2026-10-11 00:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 00:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 23:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": -0.9235900343557667,
      "diversity": 0.06000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3248009469192563
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "inside",
    "rank60": 325,
    "share15": 0.001,
    "share60": 0.0025183150183150185,
    "total15": 499,
    "total60": 2183,
    "momentum": 0.39709090909090905,
    "diversity": 0.8,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 334,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9940997222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997541550925926
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3248009469192563
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 00:04 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.105

Log loss0.393

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0021674087685819962,
  "shareRatio": 0.5862298281793364,
  "totalAfter": 42447,
  "shareBefore": 0.0037070413304387006,
  "totalBefore": 48826,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 92,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 181
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 32% that "inside" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.37% → 0.22% (-42%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "inside" (24H). momentum contributed -0.92 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash471368ba223415a8eb0cd795d98af4d68b8d0c1141aea1cad11e033fb2aa4ae9

Previous hash098af387da1afb3d41f992771fd1e1551e78f4cf9daab2ff1c229477845169b7