Ledger / Prediction #1175 · token · 1H

Will $CallCat still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 14m ago. X link, website. No hot term. Creator launched 8 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-11 00:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 01:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 23:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.04545816672765576
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "8SvWbnhnxeq5fFWP5edrPxqZKdHfx7CojPYvRXizpump",
    "name": "CallCat",
    "symbol": "CallCat",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 14,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 5286.443693500661,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 8
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 677,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.04545816672765576
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 01:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.002

Log loss0.047

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-10T23:58:21.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3084.830785441982,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 12327.764016241747,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 5286.443693500661,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 10572.887387001321
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that $CallCat would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,085, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $CallCat (1H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashc6cb7c06acc592e5fc6608f10cb45f5131b7ff0776793dcfd180705c20a11aba

Previous hash9435a36526236f61ee4ef3a926ba59652e01152ca341d919375a7b920b24004e