Ledger / Prediction #1182 · narrative · 6H
Will "read" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 9% → FADES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
24 of 1998 launches in the last hour referenced "read" (3 distinct creators, rank #16). Last 15m momentum 0.10×.
Made2026-10-11 00:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 06:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 00:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.23529238768707678,
"momentum": -2.3528748825382437,
"diversity": -0.75
},
"rawProbability": 0.09051954230487276
},
"features": {
"term": "read",
"rank60": 16,
"share15": 0.0011655011655011655,
"share60": 0.012256128064032016,
"total15": 428,
"total60": 1998,
"momentum": 0.09509538080966652,
"diversity": 0.125,
"launches15": 0,
"launches60": 24,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 3
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 297,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.99937,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.999895
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.09051954230487276
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 06:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.008
Log loss0.095
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0034416438910820934,
"shareRatio": 0.6037855463162743,
"totalAfter": 9879,
"shareBefore": 0.00574911685253169,
"totalBefore": 14437,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 34,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 83
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 9% that "read" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.57% → 0.34% (-40%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "read" (6H). momentum contributed -2.35 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
461a8f0556342123521ea2168db852ffd46bd6ae266fad1151e888a2c729e9d3Previous hash
3bff0c331cd4c17907e9a1c7ad23e7b4c2cc24986a714696be9f4b588fbb5755