Ledger / Prediction #1185 · narrative · 24H

Will "squeeze" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 49% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

24 of 1998 launches in the last hour referenced "squeeze" (19 distinct creators, rank #17). Last 15m momentum 1.24×.

Made2026-10-11 00:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 00:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 00:30 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.23529238768707678,
      "momentum": 0.21207447492329332,
      "diversity": 0.049999999999999954
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4871736724299007
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "squeeze",
    "rank60": 17,
    "share15": 0.015151515151515152,
    "share60": 0.012256128064032016,
    "total15": 428,
    "total60": 1998,
    "momentum": 1.236239950525665,
    "diversity": 0.7916666666666666,
    "launches15": 6,
    "launches60": 24,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 19
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 297,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.99937,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.99997375
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4871736724299007
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 00:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.263

Log loss0.719

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.003331049635002008,
  "shareRatio": 1.1912551736789867,
  "totalAfter": 42329,
  "shareBefore": 0.002795880188310754,
  "totalBefore": 48643,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 141,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 136
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 49% that "squeeze" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.28% → 0.33% (+19%). INCORRECT.

— volume was right but too weak on "squeeze" (24H). volume contributed +0.24 toward yes, the true outcome, but could not overcome the prior.

— The prior was wrong on "squeeze" (24H). Every active signal pointed the right way; the base assumption outweighed them.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashc35dc35e0fdf36bd2a9da9e8812f04bc55cb7fed3c9c78df63a8e6d54be5811a

Previous hash52b71461371347276aa65d0229921168230b1ee372a7d3a40baa4f30827e4b24