Ledger / Prediction #1187 · narrative · 24H

Will "public" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 39% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

20 of 1998 launches in the last hour referenced "public" (10 distinct creators, rank #21). Last 15m momentum 0.80×.

Made2026-10-11 00:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 00:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 00:30 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2079441541679836,
      "momentum": -0.22871650207661137,
      "diversity": -0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.38689421666377666
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "public",
    "rank60": 21,
    "share15": 0.008158508158508158,
    "share60": 0.01025512756378189,
    "total15": 428,
    "total60": 1998,
    "momentum": 0.7955540394564785,
    "diversity": 0.5,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 20,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 10
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 297,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.99937,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.99997375
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.38689421666377666
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 00:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.150

Log loss0.489

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.003779914479434903,
  "shareRatio": 0.8762014103641057,
  "totalAfter": 42329,
  "shareBefore": 0.004317167937832781,
  "totalBefore": 48643,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 160,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 210
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 39% that "public" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.43% → 0.38% (-12%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "public" (24H). diversity contributed -0.30 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash3515a80219f3d2511195acf721d30cd1a32535f19c347ddc0b222748bfe389f4

Previous hash6ba0339c66916e6e2b349008e3b169a8e3bff6f21eec5fa0580c221d0ce3cff1