Ledger / Prediction #1193 · narrative · 1H

Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 42% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

158 of 2087 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (88 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 0.73×.

Made2026-10-11 01:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 02:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 00:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.5179735680889299,
      "momentum": -0.3087397413296065,
      "diversity": -0.23164556962025318
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.42008810034231137
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.05574614065180103,
    "share60": 0.07590996168582376,
    "total15": 582,
    "total60": 2087,
    "momentum": 0.7343718718041675,
    "diversity": 0.5569620253164557,
    "launches15": 32,
    "launches60": 158,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 88
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 329,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9965930555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9965930555555556
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.42008810034231137
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 02:04 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.176

Log loss0.545

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.06229685807150596,
  "shareRatio": 0.8257622984838574,
  "totalAfter": 1846,
  "shareBefore": 0.07552581261950286,
  "totalBefore": 2092,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 115,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 158
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 42% that "cat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 7.55% → 6.23% (-18%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "cat" (1H). momentum contributed -0.31 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hasha4244e4dfaa055ceff066d4083f17acb8828f0115e35937e33c46e868ac71473

Previous hash8f89331a83ee66ed68c0c2a90ef629ba6146782005267726c11362c5662bf443